Forecast Note:
Between both the fact that my time is becoming rather limited (combination of work and kids at home) and the fact that almost no one is in our patrol zone, I’m scaling back the forecast a bit to only discuss my true passion: snow. I plan to keep up the snow portion of the forecast regardless of events. Thanks for understanding.
Forecast Summary:
Snow today (3/27), more snow possible Sunday through Tuesday, and snow likely again next Friday to Sunday.
Forecast Discussion:
A closed low is heading over us today, but unfortunately it is moving too fast towards the Midwest to produce a major event like many of these other closed lows and cutoff lows this time of year. Models are struggling to predict this one due to its speed and strength. If I’d have to put money on this one, I’d go with the European Model or HRRR Model. Here are the various forecasts for today’s snowfall:
10” – American Model
7” – Canadian Model
5” – European Model
4.5” – HRRR Model
3.5” – NAM Model
1” – WRF Model
By late Saturday to early Sunday, a ridge of high pressure (i.e, pleasant weather) passes through our area.
Then, the next system may move through that per the American Model has many similar characteristics to today’s system. The American Model predicts light snow Sunday through Tuesday with a total of 5”. The WRF Model only forecasts out through Monday morning, but it’s calling for 3.5” on Sunday night. The European Model is more pessimistic, with only 2” Sunday through Tuesday. And, the Canadian Model isn’t seeing it at all, and is predicting 0” during that time.
A lull is likely on Wednesday and Thursday.
Then more snow out in the forecast fairyland time-frame of next Friday through Sunday. 11” per the American Model, 8” per the European Model, and 3” per the Canadian Model. It’s strange that the models seem more in line a week out than a few days out.
Stay happy and safe during these difficult times.
-Jordan (Friday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
