Forecast:
Saturday (3/14): Partly cloudy, light snow possible, highs in the upper 30s, strong westerly winds in the morning decreasing during the day.
Sunday (3/15): Partly cloudy, highs in the low 40s, variable winds.
Summary:
Light snow today (Friday). Warm weekend though it’ll be really windy Saturday morning. Perhaps a big storm late next week.
Forecast Discussion:
A system that came in from the southwest and looks to stay a bit south and east of will bring light snow today (Friday). Here are the totals predicted: 5.5” (Canadian Model); 4.5” (HRRR Model); 3.5” (NAM Model); 2” (WRF Model, European, and American Models); 1.5” (RDPS Model).
On Saturday, the WRF Model is calling for very high gusts in the morning (up to 70 mph), but rapidly decreasing during the day, with 0.5” of snow around sunset time. The American Model has the same solution in terms of decreasing winds and a half inch of snow, but has morning gusts maxing out at 30 mph. The NAM Model seems to split the baby with 40 mph gusts in the morning, but has no snow on Saturday.
Sunday will be even warmer, with likely no snow. A weak ridge of high pressure (which means pleasant weather – and I don’t like pleasant weather) looks to dominate the weather starting on Sunday and maybe lasting as long as until Tuesday or perhaps even Thursday. The Canadian model has 3” of snow as the ridge breaks down from Wednesday to Friday morning. The American model has 6” of snow during that time. The European model holds off on any snow until mid-day Thursday.
Out in forecast fairyland, a system with a good punch looks like it may come in from the southwest on Friday-ish. The Canadian Model is calling from 7” between mid-day Friday and mid-day Saturday. The American Model’s most recent run is looking favorable, but too soon to get exact numbers pulled up. The earlier run’s numbers are low, but I think that’ll increase with the new run. And the European Model is being bullish. Between Thursday and Saturday, it’s calling for, wait for it, wait for it: 21”. Let’s hope it’s right! But don’t get your hopes up to much – we are talking about a forecast in the 6-8 day range, which is at the edge of forecast fairyland.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora reported no snow this week so far, so the weak system this week just didn’t produce. The WRF Model was the closest to accurate, while the Canadian Model was the least accurate.
-Jordan (Friday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
