Forecast:
Saturday (3/14): Partly cloudy, light snow possible, highs in the upper 30s, westerly winds around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Sunday (3/15): Partly cloudy, light snow possible, highs in the upper 30s, no idea about winds yet.
Summary:
We should get a little snow this week and next, but probably not a lot. That’s the most I can say for now in a summary.
Forecast Discussion:
A system looks set to hang out to our west on Tuesday through Thursday, which will probably mean a touch of snow for our patrol zone during that time. The WRF is calling for 0.5” during that time period, the American and European Models are calling for an 1”, the NAM is calling for 3”, the Canadian Model is calling for 4” (mostly on Wednesday night to mid-day Thursday). So, a little snow from now to Thursday.
The forecast beyond Thursday gets really tough to call as the Canadian and American solutions differ radically. Both have two systems approaching us, one from the northwest and one from the southwest. The Canadian has the two systems more spread out timewise, with an inch of snow total from the latter on Friday night, and then 7” from the former system on Monday to Wednesday. The American model has the southwest system miss us, but the northwest reaches us sooner and smaller, with 2.5” from Sunday to Wednesday. Sometimes we can use the European Model to pick the winner in these circumstances, but the European Model has its own different tale to tell. As I have not found a user friendly interface for it, I just look at snowfall totals, but the European Model is predicting an inch on Saturday, and then another inch on Wednesday to Thursday.
So, the best I can say is it’ll likely snow a bit, but when and how much is rather unknowable. And, I’m not even going to hazard a guess on winds on Sunday. The American Model has them light (i.e., 5 mph or less) from the east, and the Canadian model has them decently strong (gusts to 40 mph) from the west.
You know what they say: meteorology makes astrology look like a hard science.
Retrospective Discussion:
The Sunday night storm was a dud, with only a dusting falling at Eldora per their snow stake cam. This dusting of snow was in line with the NAM Model’s forecast, but below all the other model forecasts from two and a half days before the snow. Of note, six days before the predicted snow, the Canadian Model was calling for 10” – extraordinarily high compared to the dusting we got. That’s sad as the Canadian Model is the most bullish for the next week, and I hope we’re not seeing a trend.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday afternoon)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
