Forecast:
Saturday (2/29): Partly cloudy, highs in the mid-30s, westerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
Sunday (3/1): Partly cloudy, snow starting later in the day, highs in the mid-30s, variable winds.
Summary:
The warm and pleasant weather ends on Sunday, with moderate snow (4-8”) between Sunday late afternoon and Wednesday. Warmer weather returns on Thursday.
Forecast Discussion:
A large trough enters Colorado Sunday afternoon, which will bring snow and colder temperatures through Wednesday. Troughs are good. It’s a shame that Texas doesn’t have ski areas, because it looks like this system will have its biggest impact there.
The first and largest wave looks to hit Sunday afternoon / evening to Monday morning. The WRF Model is currently calling for snow to begin at 6 pm on Sunday, and for a total of 4” between 6 pm on Sunday and noon on Monday (which is the furthest out the current model run goes). The American model has snow starting at noon on Sunday, with totals by Monday morning of 4.5”. The Canadian Model has snow starting at 6 pm Sunday with 4.5” total by Monday morning. The European Model has the snow starting at 5 pm, with totals by Monday mid-day of 4”. Look at those numbers – the models are rarely so consistent with each other.
The models deviate on snow totals from Monday mid-day forward. As the system progresses, the Canadian has 1” of snow between Monday morning and mid-day Tuesday, and another 2.5” of snow on Wednesday. The American Model has another ½” on Tuesday, but that’s it. The European Model is calling for 1” of additional snow from Monday mid-day to Wednesday, but only in the form of slow flurries.
Snow ends by Wednesday / Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure looks to dominate weather for a while. By later in the week, the weather is looking to be quite warm.
Retrospective Discussion:
Looking back, the Thursday system produced an inch of snow at Eldora – called perfectly by the NAM model. The Tuesday snow underproduced, but none of the models were calling for a big storm anyhow. So, no big surprises since my Tuesday forecast.
I hope you’re enjoying the end of this wonderfully snowy February!
-Jordan (Friday morning)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
