Okay, I know this is a different forecast than my usual weekend backcountry patrol forecasts (posted on Tuesdays and Fridays), but I’m sure folks are wondering whether they should call in sick on Tuesday.  As most people know, there’s a real upslope storm headed our way with its sights on Boulder, Golden, and our backcountry patrol zone starting Monday morning and ending Tuesday morning.  So, how much should we get?

Unfortunately, it looks like the maximum snow will hit the foothills just west of Boulder / Golden.  After this area, the WRF Model is predicting the next most snow to be in our patrol zone, especially on the northern end, (and RMNP).  This prediction sounds reasonable.  The European Model, on the other hand, has more snow in Summit County than our patrol zone or RMNP.  The European Model’s solution could happen, but I’m skeptical, and think the WRF solution is more likely. 

Regardless, the model range for Eldora storm totals are between 4” and 7.5”.  More details below.  So, probably not worth calling in sick, but if you do call in sick, stick to our patrol zone (or Eldora if you’re going in-bounds). 

If you want to geek out, keep reading.  Otherwise, stop reading now.

Normally I just provide the predictions of three to five of my favorite models.  However, as I’m curious to see how far off the various models are, below is the storm total prediction at Eldora for eight different weather models.  It will be very interesting to see which model predicts this upslope storm the best.  If I was a betting man, I’d put my money on the WRF Hi-Res.

[Updates on Monday Morning in Block Parenthesis]

American (GFS) Model:                 7.5” [5.5”]

CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model:               6.5” [6.5”]

[HRRR]                                                  [6”]

CAIC WRF Model:                             5.5” [6”]

NAM Model:                                      5” [3”]

Canadian (RDPS) Model:               4.5” [5”]

Canadian (GDPS) Model:              4.5” [4”]

European (ECMWF) Hi-Res Model: 4” [4”]

SREF Model:                                       0.5” [1″] (this is why I never look at this one!)

I hope this helps.  I’ll try to do my usual Tuesday morning patrol forecast,  That is, of course, if I’m not skiing on Tuesday morning.

-Jordan (Sunday evening)