Forecast:
Saturday (1/18): Mostly sunny, highs in the low 20s, westerly winds starting day as high as 40 mph with gusts to 80 mph, but ending the day at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Sunday (1/19): Mostly sunny, highs in the upper 20s, variable winds in the 10 mph range with gusts to 25 mph.
Forecast Discussion:
Light snow and very windy on Friday (CAIC WRF Hi-Res is forecasting gusts over 100 mph). As for snow totals, the models are in the 1-3” range. (Specifically, the CAIC WRF Hi-Res is calling for 2.5”, the Canadian (GDPS) and European (ECMWF) are calling for 2”, the American (GFS) and the NAM are both calling for 1”.) The highest snow totals likely near the divide on the south end of our patrol zone.
Saturday and Sunday look to be mostly sunny, with decreasing winds on Saturday and moderate winds on Sunday. If anyone is patrolling on MLK day, it should be even more pleasant – likely the nicest weather of the long weekend.
Then there will be snow on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. The American (GFS) has snow on Wednesday and Thursday, with a total of 7.5”. The Canadian (GDPS) has snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a total of 2”. The European solution unfortunately is looking more like the Canadian one, with less snow. Let’s hope the Americans are right on this one.
Looking further forward, it looks like there will be a break next Friday (1/24). Out in forecast fairyland, the European (ECMWF) is calling for snow next Saturday (1/25), but neither the American (GFS) nor the Canadian (GDPS) are predicting snow.
Looking back, unfortunately Eldora only reported 1” of snow Wednesday morning (3” from Sunday through Tuesday night). So, the 3” predicted by the CAIC WRF and Canadian models were a bit too optimistic – with the other major models making more accurate predictions.
As always, the forecast is for 10,000’ in exposed areas. Please let me know your thoughts and observations.
And my apologies for timing. I’ve been aiming to get these out Tuesday and Friday morning in preparation for the call, but the pressures of work and travel have meant that I’ve had to do a number of these forecasts the evening before.
-Jordan (Thursday evening)
