Forecast:
Snowy start to the week with the highest snow totals in northern and eastern ends of our patrol zone. Light snow and colder than recent weekends this upcoming weekend.
Forecast discussion:
Patrollers, here’s a quick early week update for those in town for Thanksgiving. Our patrol area should be getting a healthy dose (say 6-12”) of fresh snow Monday night through Tuesday. It looks like total snow amounts will be highest in the foothills west of Fort Collins. So, expect the highest snow totals in our backcountry patrol zone (good chance of a foot or more) to be both in the more northerly and the more easterly directions. Close to the divide above East Portal will probably get the least amount snow in our patrol area out of this storm.
Below is the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model’s predictions, which seems generally in line with our patrol area (but not other places like Berthoud Pass) as the other models I glanced at this morning: American (GFS); Canadian (GDPS); and NAM.
There will be more light snow later in the week, probably lasting into the weekend. As of now, this weekend looks colder than recent weekends, with light snow.
Looking back at this past Thursday’s forecast, I spent Sunday afternoon with the kids at Eldora, and it was just slightly warmer than I predicted it would be on Thursday. It was 37 degrees at 2 pm at my car – so figure a high of 35 degrees at 10,000 feet as opposed to the predicted low-30s. Otherwise, the Sunday forecast certainly felt spot on – partly cloudy, with winds in the 15-25 mph with gusts to 50 mph. One gust blew my skis and the kids skis off the ski rack while we were in the lodge. Sadly, Eldora got the bottom of my Thursday snow prediction – getting 2” of the 2-8” I forecasted on Thursday/Friday. Sorry I was too optimistic. This upcoming storm, at least, looks like a good one, with higher snow amounts (though following a similar pattern of stronger to the north) than I predicted this past Thursday. We’ll see.
Looking back at this past Thursday’s forecast, I spent Sunday afternoon with the kids at Eldora, and it was just slightly warmer than I predicted it would be on Thursday. It was 37 degrees at 2 pm at my car – so figure a high of 35 degrees at 10,000 feet as opposed to the predicted low-30s. Otherwise, the Sunday forecast certainly felt spot on – partly cloudy, with winds in the 15-25 mph with gusts to 50 mph. One gust blew my skis and the kids skis off the ski rack while we were in the lodge. Sadly, Eldora got the bottom of my Thursday snow prediction – getting 2” of the 2-8” I forecasted on Thursday/Friday. Sorry I was too optimistic. This upcoming storm, at least, looks like good one, with higher snow amounts (though following a similar pattern of stronger to the north) than I predicted this past Thursday. We’ll see.
