Forecast:
Saturday (11/16/19): Partly cloudy with a highs in the mid-30s. Westerly winds in the 15-25 mph range with possible gusts as high as 50 mph.
Sunday (11/17/19): Partly cloudy with a highs in the mid-30s. Westerly winds in the 15-25 mph range with possible gusts as high as 50 mph.
Forecast Discussion:
While October was great, November so far has been a disappointment. If you asked me on Tuesday afternoon, I would have told you there would be a good chance for some real snow (probably 3-6”) on Saturday as the American (GFS) model was strongly predicting snow and the Canadian (GDPS) was weakly predicting snow. However, looking at these models now (on Thursday afternoon), the Canadian (GDPS), the short-term NAM and the short-term CAIC WRF all say it will not snow this weekend. Only the American (GFS) model been is still calling for a dusting, and this is far less than it was calling for earier this week. If there’s any snow this weekend, the northern end of our patrol zone is more likely to get it than the southern end, and it still likely will be less than an inch. Simply, the storm is both weaker and more northerly than predicted earlier in the week. What a bummer! I really hope the models and I are both wrong, and we see at least a little snow this weekend.
With no good news for this weekend, let’s look ahead. There may be a little snow on Monday, but nothing significant. Gazing further out, there may be good news on the horizon. Both the American (GFS) model and the Canadian (GDPS) model are suggesting that two systems (one from the northwest and one from the southwest) will combine to produce a major weather shift and some snow starting next Thursday (November 21). And, the predicted storm path from the southwest is following a promising pattern for snow to our backcountry patrol area. However, this forecast is still far out enough, and on the border of forecast fairyland time from now, as to not get too excited yet.
As a reminder, my forecast is for unprotected / unsheltered areas at 10,000’. As a rough rule of thumb for these patrol forecasts, subtract 4 degrees of temperature for every 1,000’ higher you may go on patrol than 10,000’, and add 4 degrees of temperature for every 1,000’ lower you may go on patrol then 10,000’.
